Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
